Cap Horizon #2: Colorado’s Next Cap Dollar Already Has a Job
CAP HORIZON · ISSUE 002 · COLORADO AVALANCHE · OCTOBER 29, 2026
Colorado's next roster decision needs two budgets: the room available for a move today, and the money required to complete next season's team.
All amounts below are U.S. dollars. Database figures are a public snapshot checked October 29, not official club accounting. The calculations are transparent planning exercises, not a prediction of a transaction.
Team Horizon: a narrow present, an unfinished future
PuckPedia's snapshot lists projected space of $265,453, current space of $312,108 and deadline space of $1,256,046. Its roster is 21/23. It separately displays a $557,195 LTIR pool and $2,291,841 in bonus overages.
Those labels answer different questions. Do not add the LTIR pool to current space or describe deadline room as money available for a transaction today. The displayed current-space definition is the annual cap hit that can be added on the selected date, assuming no other roster moves. Transactions and injury status can change that answer.
$312K current space, rounded public estimate.
17 projected roster players; a 23-player plan needs six more.
Reserve the cost of those roles before shopping.
Public projected cap charges · USD millions · Oct. 29 snapshot
Common zero-based scale. These are cap charges, not cash payroll or completed future rosters. Source: PuckPedia. Roster counts reproduce its projection, not a guarantee of future availability.
The decline in commitments is real in the displayed projection; the vacancies are equally real as a planning problem. An unsigned role is not automatically a saving. It can be filled by a low-cost player, a retained veteran, an acquisition or a more expensive replacement. Each choice changes the available balance.
The Makar transition is already in the forecast
Colorado announced Makar's extension through 2034-35 on August 28, 2026. Team announcement. His contract page lists a $9M current cap hit and a $20.4M extension starting in 2027-28.
The author's calculation is an $11.4M annual increase. Against the league and union's published $113.5M projection for 2027-28, compared with $104M for 2026-27, that increase exceeds the projected ceiling rise by $1.9M. This comparison isolates one contract; it does not mean the entire roster becomes $1.9M more expensive.
Crucially, the future team projection already contains the extension. Subtracting Makar's raise again from its remaining room would count the same cost twice. The useful question is what the remaining budget must cover.
Rule Check: empty roster places have a minimum cost
The 2025 NHL/NHLPA memorandum, item 26, revising CBA section 11.12(a), sets minimum NHL salaries at $850,000 for 2026-27, $900,000 for 2027-28, $950,000 for 2028-29 and $1M for 2029-30. Its opening term provision gives September 16, 2026 as the effective date.
For a simple 23-player planning roster in 2027-28, six added players at $900,000 cost $5.4M. This is an illustrative lower-cost fill, not an assertion that six suitable players are available at the minimum or that every club must carry 23 players.
Projected ceiling $113.500M
− displayed commitments $100.979M
= unfilled-roster balance $12.521M
− six hypothetical minimum salaries $5.400M
= $7.121M before upgrades and other adjustments
The bridge assumes the displayed commitments and roster count remain applicable. It does not model every bonus, injury, retained charge, contract clause or roster transaction. Treat it as a way to expose the cost of vacancies, not a certified compliance calculation.
Decision Window: choose the role before the name
Lehkonen's announced deal runs through 2026-27. Original team contract release. That makes his role an obvious subject for a next-season plan, whether it is filled through an extension or another roster decision. This article makes no claim about the status of private negotiations.
Suppose one of the six vacant places is assigned a hypothetical $6M annual budget. Replace one $900,000 placeholder; do not add a seventh player. The incremental cost is $5.1M, leaving $2.021M from the illustrative balance for further changes. That is arithmetic, not a recommended salary for Lehkonen or any other player.
Now test a different choice: assign the same role $8M. The increment above its placeholder becomes $7.1M, leaving only $21,000 in this simplified model. Small changes to the assumed role cost can consume the cushion long before the roster is ready to absorb surprises.
League Lens: test the ceiling, too
PuckPedia uses $127.5M ceiling assumptions for 2028-29 and 2029-30. Those are database assumptions here, not guaranteed league limits. Under an explicit alternative that holds the ceiling at $113.5M, the displayed commitments leave $27.196M and $43.046M respectively—before filling the remaining roles.
A lower assumed ceiling and an expensive replacement can both matter. Keep them as separate variables so the reader can see which one drives the conclusion. Do not convert a distant, incomplete-roster projection into a claim that a team has solved its future cap problem.
Nor does a tight projection establish cap circumvention. A public spreadsheet cannot by itself establish a prohibited agreement, an injury misrepresentation or an official violation. Analyze the disclosed numbers and applicable rules without inventing misconduct.
Colorado's practical test: price the missing roles, include the extension once, and show the cushion after those decisions. The next cap dollar already has work to do.
Every dollar. Every roster. Every season. Follow #CapHorizon for daily NHL cap analysis. Next in the team rotation: Carolina. Method and readership information.
Views are personal and independent. Original analysis; public estimates can change. No affiliation with the NHL, NHLPA or any club. The scenario is not a transaction forecast. Sources checked October 29, 2026.
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